How Many People Have Right Wing Extremists Killed Peer Reviewed Studies

The Escalating Terrorism Problem in the United States

CSIS Briefs

June 17, 2020

THE Event

The United States faces a growing terrorism problem that will likely worsen over the next year. Based on a CSIS data set of terrorist incidents, the most significant threat likely comes from white supremacists, though anarchists and religious extremists inspired by the Islamic State and al-Qaeda could nowadays a potential threat besides. Over the rest of 2020, the terrorist threat in the United States will likely rise based on several factors, including the November 2020 presidential ballot.

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On June 3, 2020, federal authorities arrested three individuals allegedly associated with the "boogaloo" movement, a loosely-organized grouping of extremists preparing for a ceremonious state of war, for conspiring to cause violence in Las Vegas and possessing an improvised incendiary device.¹ Less than a week afterward, law enforcement officials near Richmond, VA, arrested Harry H. Rogers, a fellow member of the Ku Klux Klan, for driving a vehicle into peaceful protesters. Around the same time, members of a Brooklyn anarchist group urged its supporters to conduct "rebellion" confronting the government.² Extremists from all sides flooded social media with disinformation, conspiracy theories, and incitements to violence in response to the protests following the decease of George Floyd, swamping Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and other platforms.³

This CSIS brief examines the land of terrorism in the United states. Information technology asks 2 sets of questions. First, what are the about significant types of terrorism in the Us, and how has the terrorism threat in the U.S. homeland evolved over fourth dimension? 2nd, what are the implications for terrorism over the next twelvemonth? To answer these questions, this analysis compiles and analyzes an original data set of 893 terrorist plots and attacks in the United States between January 1994 and May 2020.

This analysis makes several arguments. Start, far-right terrorism has significantly outpaced terrorism from other types of perpetrators, including from far-left networks and individuals inspired past the Islamic Country and al-Qaeda. Right-wing attacks and plots account for the majority of all terrorist incidents in the United states of america since 1994, and the total number of right-wing attacks and plots has grown significantly during the past vi years. Correct-wing extremists perpetrated ii thirds of the attacks and plots in the Usa in 2019 and over 90 percent betwixt Jan ane and May viii, 2020. 2d, terrorism in the United States will probable increase over the next year in response to several factors. I of the virtually concerning is the 2020 U.South. presidential election, before and later on which extremists may resort to violence, depending on the outcome of the election. Far-right and far-left networks have used violence against each other at protests, raising the possibility of escalating violence during the ballot menstruation.

The rest of this brief is divided into the following sections. The first defines terrorism and its main types. The 2d department analyzes terrorism trends in the United States since 1994. The third examines far-correct, far-left, and religious networks. The fourth department highlights the terrorism threat over the adjacent year.

DEFINITIONS

This analysis focuses on terrorism: the deliberate use—or threat—of violence by non-land actors in order to accomplish political goals and create a broad psychological impact.⁴ Violence—and the threat of violence—are important components of terrorism. Overall, this assay divides terrorism into 4 broad categories: right-wing, left-wing, religious, and ethnonationalist.^five To be clear, terms similar right-wing and left-fly terrorism do not—in any way—correspond to mainstream political parties in the United States, such as the Republican and Autonomous parties, which eschew terrorism. Instead, terrorism is orchestrated by a minor minority of extremists.

Beginning, right-wing terrorism refers to the use or threat of violence by sub-national or non-land entities whose goals may include racial or ethnic supremacy; opposition to government authority; anger at women, including from the incel ("involuntary celibate") movement; and outrage confronting sure policies, such every bit abortion.⁶ This analysis uses the term "right-wing terrorism" rather than "racially- and ethnically-motivated fierce extremism," or REMVE, which is used by some in the U.Southward. regime.⁷ 2nd, left-fly terrorism involves the use or threat of violence past sub-national or non-state entities that oppose capitalism, imperialism, and colonialism; pursue environmental or animal rights bug; espouse pro-communist or pro-socialist beliefs; or back up a decentralized social and political system such as riot. Third, religious terrorism includes violence in support of a faith-based belief arrangement, such as Islam, Judaism, Christianity, and Hinduism, amid many others. As highlighted in the next section, the master threat from religious terrorists comes from Salafi-jihadists inspired by the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. Fourth, ethnonationalist terrorism refers to violence in back up of indigenous or nationalist goals—oftentimes struggles of self-determination and separatism along ethnic or nationalist lines.

In examining terrorism, this analysis does not specifically accost several related phenomena. For case, it does not focus on hate crimes. There is overlap between terrorism and hate crimes, since some hate crimes include the utilize or threat of violence.^eight Just detest crimes tin can also include non-violent incidents such as graffiti and verbal abuse. Detest crimes are obviously concerning and a threat to order, but this analysis concentrates only on terrorism and the employ—or threat—of violence to attain political objectives.

TRENDS IN U.S. TERRORISM

To evaluate the threat posed by terrorism, nosotros compiled a information set up of 893 incidents that occurred in the United States between Jan 1994 and May 8, 2020.⁹ (The link to the methodology can exist constitute at the stop of the cursory.) These incidents included both attacks and foiled plots. We coded the ideology of the perpetrators into i of five categories: ethnonationalist, left-wing, religious, right-wing, and other (which included motivations that did not fit into any of the categories). All of the religious attacks and plots in the CSIS data set were committed past terrorists who ascribed to a Salafi-jihadist ideology.

This department analyzes the data in ii parts: terrorist incidents and fatalities. The data show iii notable trends. First, right-wing attacks and plots accounted for the majority of all terrorist incidents in the United States since 1994. In particular, they fabricated upwardly a large percentage of incidents in the 1990s and 2010s. 2nd, the total number of right-fly attacks and plots has grown substantially during the by six years. In 2019, for example, right-wing extremists perpetrated about 2-thirds of the terrorist attacks and plots in the United States, and they committed over ninety per centum of the attacks and plots between January 1 and May 8, 2020. 3rd, although religious extremists were responsible for the almost fatalities considering of the 9/11 attacks, right-wing perpetrators were responsible for more half of all almanac fatalities in 14 of the 21 years during which fatal attacks occurred.

ATTACKS AND PLOTS

Betwixt 1994 and 2020, there were 893 terrorist attacks and plots in the U.s.. Overall, right-wing terrorists perpetrated the bulk—57 percent—of all attacks and plots during this period, compared to 25 percent committed by left-wing terrorists, 15 percent past religious terrorists, iii percent by ethnonationalists, and 0.vii percent by terrorists with other motives.

Figure i shows the proportion of attacks and plots attributed to the perpetrator ideologies each year during this flow. Right-wing attacks and plots were predominant from 1994 to 1999 and accounted for more than one-half of all incidents in 2008 likewise every bit every year since 2011, with the exception of 2013. Well-nigh right-wing attacks in the 1990s targeted ballgame clinics, while most correct-fly attacks since 2014 focused on individuals (oft targeted because of organized religion, race, or ethnicity) and religious institutions. Facilities and individuals related to the government and police have besides been consistent right-wing targets throughout the period, particularly for attacks by militia and sovereign citizen groups.
The subtract in right-wing activity in the early-2000s coincided with an increase in left-wing activity from 2000 to 2005. Most of these left-fly attacks targeted property associated with animal research, farming, or construction and were claimed past the Animate being Liberation Front or the Earth Liberation Front.

As shown in Figure 2, information on the number of terrorist attacks and plots by perpetrator orientation bespeak that right-fly terrorism not only accounts for the majority of incidents but has also grown in quantity over the past six years. This increment is reminiscent of the wave of right-wing activity in the 1990s that peaked with 43 right-wing incidents in 1995. The Oklahoma City bombing, which occurred on April 19, 1995, was the second-most deadly terrorist attack in U.S. history, after September 11, 2001. In three contempo years—2016, 2017, and 2019—the number of right-wing terrorist events matched or exceeded the number in 1995, including a contempo high of 53 correct-wing terrorist incidents in 2017. Despite a moderate decrease in 2018 to 29 incidents, right-wing activity over again increased in 2019 to 44 incidents. Religious attacks and plots accept also shown some increases during this menstruation—notably in 2015, 2017, and 2019—merely at a significantly smaller magnitude than right-wing events.

FATALITIES

In analyzing fatalities from terrorist attacks, religious terrorism has killed the largest number of individuals—3,086 people—primarily due to the attacks on September 11, 2001, which acquired 2,977 deaths.^x The magnitude of this death toll fundamentally shaped U.S. counterterrorism policy over the past two decades. In comparison, correct-wing terrorist attacks caused 335 deaths, left-wing attacks caused 22 deaths, and ethnonationalist terrorists acquired 5 deaths.

To evaluate the ongoing threat from different types of terrorists, however, it is useful to consider the proportion of fatalities attributed to each type of perpetrator annually. In fourteen of the 21 years between 1994 and 2019 in which fatal terrorist attacks occurred, the bulk of deaths resulted from right-wing attacks. In eight of these years, right-wing attackers caused all of the fatalities, and in 3 more—including 2018 and 2019—they were responsible for more than 90 per centum of annual fatalities.^xi Therefore, while religious terrorists caused the largest number of total fatalities, right-wing attackers were most likely to cause more deaths in a given year.

TYPES OF TERRORISM

This section outlines the threat from right-wing, left-fly, and religious networks. In detail, it focuses on the threat from right-wing extremists because of the loftier number of incidents and fatalities they perpetrated, as highlighted in the previous section. It does not cover ethnonationalist networks, which are not a major threat in the United States today.

Correct-Fly TERRORISM

There are iii broad types of right-wing terrorist individuals and networks in the The states: white supremacists, anti-government extremists, and incels. There are numerous differences between (and even within) these types, such as ideology, capabilities, tactics, and level of threat. Adherents also tend to blend elements from each category. Simply there are some commonalities.

First, terrorists in all of these categories operate nether a decentralized model. The threats from these networks comes from individuals, not groups.¹² For case, anti-government activist and white supremacist Louis Beam advocated for an organizational structure that he termed "leaderless resistance" to target the U.Southward. authorities.¹³

2d, these networks operate and organize to a great extent online, challenging law enforcement efforts to identify potential attackers.^fourteen Correct-wing terrorists accept used various combinations of Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Gab, Reddit, 4Chan, 8kun (formerly 8Chan), Endchan, Telegram, Vkontakte, MeWe, Discord, Wire, Twitch, and other online communication platforms. Internet and social media sites go along to host right-fly extremist ideas such as the Fourteen Words (as well referred to as the 14 or 14/88) coined by white supremacist David Lane, a founding member of the group the Club. The Fourteen Words includes variations like: "Nosotros must secure the existence of our people and a time to come for white children."¹⁵ Far-right perpetrators besides utilise estimator games and forums to recruit.¹⁶

Tertiary, right-wing extremists have adopted some strange terrorist organization tactics, though al-Qaeda and other groups take also adopted tactics adult by right-fly movements.¹⁷ In a June 2019 online post, a member of the Atomwaffen Partition (AWD) stated, "the culture of martyrdom and insurgency within groups like the Taliban and ISIS is something to admire and reproduce in the neo-Nazi terror motion."¹⁸ Similarly, the Base—a loosely organized neo-Nazi accelerationist move which shares the English-language name for al-Qaeda—uses a vetting procedure to screen potential recruits, like to the methods of al-Qaeda.^xix

This ascension in right-wing activity is of national business organization; it is non isolated to i region and affects cities of varying sizes. Figure three shows the locations of correct-fly terror attacks and plots in the United States over the past half dozen years. These incidents occurred in 42 states, Washington, DC, and Puerto Rico.

White Supremacists: White supremacist networks are highly decentralized. About believe that whites accept their ain civilization that is superior to other cultures, are genetically superior to other peoples, and should exert potency over others. Many white supremacists also adhere, in varying degrees, to the Smashing Replacement conspiracy. The conspiracy claims that whites are being eradicated by ethnic and racial minorities—including Jews and immigrants.²⁰ Brenton Tarrant, the Christchurch shooter in New Zealand, and Patrick Crusius, the El Paso Walmart shooter, consort the virtually radical view of the Great Replacement conspiracy, known as Accelerationism. As advocated by Tarrant and Crusius, violent accelerationists claim that the demise of Western governments should be accelerated to create radical social alter and establish a whites-only ethnostate.²¹

White supremacists draw inspiration from individuals away and at home. Tarrant, for case, drew inspiration from Anders Breivik, who conducted the 2011 terrorist assault in Norway that killed 77 people, and Dylan Roof, who was responsible for the 2015 Charleston Church shooting that killed 9 people in South Carolina.²² Tarrant's Christchurch attack then inspired terrorist attacks in the Usa by John Earnest in California and Patrick Crusius in Texas.²³ White supremacist actors have also travelled abroad seeking paramilitary grooming and networking opportunities. In Leap 2018, for example, members of the Rise Above Movement (RAM) travelled to Ukraine to celebrate Hitler's altogether and train with the Azov Battalion, a paramilitary unit of measurement of the Ukrainian National Guard, which the FBI says is associated with neo-Nazi ideology.²⁴

White supremacist neo-Nazi organizations, such as the Nationalist Socialist Movement, American Nazi Political party, Vanguard America, and others often adhere to the Zionist Occupied Government (ZOG) conspiracy theory—that Jews secretly control the U.S. government, the media, banks, and the United nations. Of particular business organisation is the emergence of the Atomwaffen Division (AWD), a U.S.-based neo-Nazi hate group with branches in the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Baltics.²⁵ In January 2018, Brandon Russell, founder of the AWD was arrested and sentenced for possessing a destructive device and explosive material.²⁶ Despite similar arrests, the AWD continues to plot, conduct attacks, and recruit. In February, 4 AWD members—including Cameron Shea, a loftier-level fellow member and recruiter of the AWD—were arrested for conspiring to targets journalists and activists. They used encrypted chat platforms, distributed threatening posters, and wore disguises.²⁷ Other arrests have been fabricated under non-terrorism-related charges.²⁸

The AWD continues to train and arm their members similar to international terrorist organizations. In January 2018, the AWD hosted a "Death Valley Detest Army camp" in Las Vegas, Nevada, where members trained in paw-to-hand combat, firearms, and the creation of neo-Nazi propaganda videos and pictures. In Baronial 2019, leadership members of the AWD attended a "Nuclear Congress" in Las Vegas, Nevada.²⁹ Other white supremacist movements include the Base, the Patriot Front end, and the Rise In a higher place Movement.³⁰

Anti-government Extremists: The right-wing terrorist threat also includes anti-government extremists, including militias and the sovereign citizen movement. Most militia extremists view the U.S. government every bit corrupt and a threat to freedom and rights.³¹ Other far-right anti-government groups mobilized to protect a perceived threat to individual gun ownership rights. Modern militias are organized as paramilitaries that conduct weapons training and other field exercises.³² The Three Percenters are a far-correct paramilitary group that advocates gun rights and seeks to limit U.S. regime authorities. In Baronial 2017, Jerry Varnell, a 23-year-old who identified as holding the "III% ideology" and wanted to "start the side by side revolution" attempted to detonate a bomb outside of an Oklahoma bank, similar to the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing.³³ Also, in Jan 2017, Marq Perez, who discussed the assail in Three Percenter channels on Facebook, burglarized and burned down a mosque in Texas.³⁴

Anti-government extremists, which sometimes alloy with white supremacist movements, take used the slang give-and-take "boogaloo" as a shorthand for a coming civil state of war. Several popular Facebook groups and Instagram pages, such as Thicc Boog Line, P A T R I O T Wave, and Boogaloo Nation, have emerged spreading the boogaloo conspiracy. Law in Texas arrested 36-year-old Aaron Swenson in April later he attempted to livestream his search for a law officer that he could ambush and execute.³⁵ Prior to his arrest, Swenson had shared memes extensively from boogaloo pages.

Incels: Involuntary celibates, or incels, conduct acts of violence against women. The incel movement is composed of a loosely organized virtual customs of young males. Incels believe that one'southward place in guild is determined by physical characteristics and that women are responsible for this bureaucracy. Incels identify with the writings of Elliot Rodger, who published a 133-page manifesto, titled "My Twisted World."³⁶ In October 2015, Christopher Harper-Mercer, inspired by Rodger, killed nine people at a community college in Oregon.³⁷ In November 2018, 40-year-old Scott Beierle killed ii women in a yoga studio in Tallahassee, Florida, before committing suicide.³⁸

LEFT-Wing TERRORISM

The far-left includes a decentralized mix of actors. Anarchists are fundamentally opposed to a centralized regime and capitalism, and they have organized plots and attacks against regime, capitalist, and globalization targets.³⁹ Environmental and animal rights groups, such every bit the Globe Liberation Front and Animal Liberation Front, have conducted small-scale attacks against businesses they perceive every bit exploiting the environment.^forty

In add-on, the far-left includes Antifa, which is a contraction of the phrase "anti-fascist." Information technology refers to a decentralized network of far-left militants that oppose what they believe are fascist, racist, or otherwise right-wing extremists. While some consider Antifa a sub-set of anarchists, adherents frequently alloy anarchist and communist views. I of the most common symbols used past Antifa combines the blood-red flag of the 1917 Russian Revolution and the blackness flag of nineteenth-century anarchists. Antifa groups frequently conduct counter- protests to disrupt far-correct gatherings and rallies. They often organize in blackness blocs (ad hoc gatherings of individuals that wear blackness clothing, ski masks, scarves, sunglasses, and other textile to conceal their faces), employ improvised explosive devices and other homemade weapons, and resort to vandalism. In addition, Antifa members organize their activities through social media, encrypted peer-to-peer networks, and encrypted messaging services such every bit Bespeak.

Antifa groups have been increasingly active in protests and rallies over the past few years, particularly ones that include far-right participants.⁴¹ In June 2016, for example, Antifa and other protestors confronted a neo-Nazi rally in Sacramento, CA, where at least five people were stabbed. In February, March, and April 2017, Antifa members attacked alt-right demonstrators at the Academy of California, Berkeley, using bricks, pipes, hammers, and bootleg incendiary devices.⁴² In July 2019, William Van Spronsen, a self-proclaimed Antifa, attempted to bomb the U.Southward. Immigration and Community Enforcement detention facility in Tacoma, Washington, using a propane tank only was killed by police.⁴³

RELIGIOUS TERRORISM

While religious terrorism is apropos, the United States does not face up the same level of threat today from religious extremists—peculiarly those inspired by Salafi-jihadist groups such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda—as some European countries.⁴⁴ Simply Salafi-jihadists all the same pose a express threat. In December 2019, Second Lieutenant Mohammed Saeed Alshamrani, a Saudi air force cadet training with the American armed forces in Pensacola, Florida, killed iii men and injured three others. He was inspired past al-Qaeda's ideology, communicated with leaders of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula upward until the attack, and joined the Saudi armed forces in role to carry out a "special operation."⁴⁵

In addition, leaders of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State continue to encourage individuals in the West—including the United States—to deport attacks.⁴⁶ In that location are still perhaps xx,000 to 25,000 jihadist fighters in Syria and Iraq from the Islamic State and some other 15,000 to 20,000 fighters from two al-Qaeda-linked groups: Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and Tanzim Hurras al-Din.⁴⁷ Over the next several months, more jihadists may enter the battleground after escaping—or existence released—from prisons run by the Syrian Autonomous Forces in areas such equally al-Hol, located in eastern Syria nearly the border with Iraq.⁴⁸ In addition, there are still concerns about al-Qaeda and Islamic Country groups operating in Yemen, Nigeria and neighboring countries, Somalia, Afghanistan, and other countries. In a May 2020 study, the United nations ended that al-Qaeda remains a serious threat and that the "senior leadership of Al-Qaida remains present in Afghanistan, as well every bit hundreds of armed operatives, Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent, and groups of foreign terrorist fighters aligned with the Taliban."⁴⁹

THE Rise SPECTER OF TERRORISM

Our data advise that right-fly extremists pose the most significant terrorism threat to the United states of america, based on almanac terrorist events and fatalities. Over the next year, the threat of terrorism in the United States volition likely increment based on several factors, such as the November 2020 presidential ballot and the response to the Covid-19 crisis. These factors are not the cause of terrorism, simply they are events and developments likely to fuel anger and be co-opted by a pocket-size minority of extremists equally a pretext for violence.

Get-go, the November 2020 presidential election will likely be a pregnant source of anger and polarization that increases the possibility of terrorism. Some—though not all—far-right extremists acquaintance themselves with President Trump and may resort to violence earlier or afterwards the election. As U.S. Section of Justice documents accept highlighted, some far-right extremists have referred to themselves equally "Trumpenkriegers"—or "fighters for Trump."^l If President Trump loses the election, some extremists may utilize violence because they believe—nonetheless incorrectly—that there was fraud or that the election of Democratic candidate Joe Biden will undermine their extremist objectives. Alternatively, some on the far-left could resort to terrorism if President Trump is re-elected. In June fourteen, 2017, James Hodgkinson—a left-wing extremist—shot U.S. House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, U.S. Capitol Police officer Crystal Griner, congressional aide Zack Barth, and lobbyist Matt Mika in Alexandria, VA. A few months earlier, Hodgkinson wrote in a Facebook post that "Trump is a Traitor. Trump Has Destroyed Our Democracy. It's Time to Destroy Trump & Co."⁵¹ Tension on both the far right and far left has dramatically risen over the by several years.

Second, developments associated with Covid-19—such as prolonged unemployment or government attempts to shut "non-essential" businesses in response to a second or third wave—could increase the possibility of terrorism. Some far-right extremists, for instance, have threatened violence and railed confronting federal, state, and local efforts to have away their freedoms by requiring face coverings in public indoor settings, closing businesses, and prohibiting large gatherings to adjourn the spread of the virus. In March 2020, Timothy Wilson, who had ties to neo-Nazi groups, was killed in a shootout with FBI agents who were attempting to arrest him for planning to flop a hospital in Missouri. Though he had been planning the attack for some time and had considered a diverseness of targets, he used the outbreak of Covid-19 to target a hospital in order to gain additional publicity. On the far left and far right, some anti-vaxxers—who oppose vaccines as a conspiracy by the government and pharmaceutical companies—take threatened violence in response to Covid-19 response efforts.⁵²

3rd, a polarizing upshot other than the presidential ballot—such as a school shooting or racially-motivated killing—could spark protests that extremists endeavor to hijack. As highlighted in the introduction, extremists from all sides attempted to hijack the May and June 2020 protests in the United States as an excuse to commit acts of terrorism. In improver, far-right and far-left networks have used violence confronting each other at protests—such as in Berkeley, CA and Charlottesville, VA in 2017—raising concerns about escalating violence.

All parts of U.Due south. guild have an important role to play in countering terrorism. Politicians need to encourage greater civility and refrain from incendiary language. Social media companies need to keep sustained efforts to fight hatred and terrorism on their platforms. Facebook, Google, Twitter, and other companies are already doing this. But the struggle will only become more than difficult as the United States approaches the November 2020 presidential election—and even in its aftermath. Finally, the U.Due south. population needs to be more alert to disinformation, double-bank check their sources of information, and curb incendiary language.

Terrorism feeds off lies, conspiracies, disinformation, and hatred. Indian leader Mahatma Gandhi urged individuals to practice what he called "satyagraha," or truth forcefulness. "Satyagraha is a weapon of the stiff; it admits of no violence under any circumstance any; and it always insists upon truth," he explained.⁵³ That advice is just every bit important every bit it has ever been in the U.s.a..

Seth Thousand. Jones is the Harold Dark-brown Chair and managing director of the Transnational Threats Projection at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Catrina Doxsee is a plan manager and inquiry acquaintance with the Transnational Threats Project at CSIS. Nicholas Harrington is a research associate for the Transnational Threats Project at CSIS.

The authors give special cheers to James Suber and Grace Hwang for their enquiry assistance and helpful comments, including their interest in building the terrorism data set.

For an overview of the methodology used in compiling the data set, please meet hither .

This brief is made possible by general support to CSIS. No directly sponsorship contributed to this cursory.

CSIS Briefs are produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, taxation-exempt establishment focusing on international public policy issues. Its inquiry is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does non have specific policy positions. Appropriately, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the writer(s).

© 2020 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

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